Funny don't remember Christ saying. . . . run down to Caesar and get accredited. . . .so if the schools are getting closed. . . .yahoooo. . . . .that will cut down on heresy.. . . .
[Hal] Lindsey was not the only writer to suggest that the Messiah would return in 1988. (69)
When Jesus did not return that years, however, Lindsey revised his timescale by suggesting that a biblical generation could be anything from forty to 100 years and that perhaps a Daniel's prophetic clock had started clicking not in 1948 but in 1967 when Israel captured Jerusalem. (70) Undaunted in 1998 Grant Jeffrey calculated that Daniel's last 'week' would begin in 1993, the tribualtion would occur in 1997 and the cleansing of the temple and millineum would begin in the autumn of 2000.(71) Like Lindsey, his subsequent books have been less specific. (72)
Stephen Sizer, Christian Zionism: Road-map to Armageddon? (Leicester: 2004) p. 126.
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Expecting Armageddon: Essential Readings in Failed Prophecy - Book Review
Sociology of Religion, Fall, 2003 by Edward Berryman
by JON R. STONE (ed.). New York and London: Routledge, 2000, 284pp. $95.00 (Cloth), $25.95 (Paper)
When Prophecy Fails, by Leon Festinger, Henry Riecken and Stanley Schacter, is a true "contemporary classic." It would not be an exaggeration to say that anyone working today in the social scientific study of religion has at least heard about the book. More significantly, it has constantly stimulated scholarly work in the four decades since its publication. This ongoing dialogue with Festinger's work was ripe for an assessment and it is this timely opportunity that Jon R. Stone provides in Expecting Armageddon. Stone has gathered 14 "essential" articles that, through the years, have subjected the Festinger thesis to close scrutiny either in case studies or in more theoretical efforts. The papers are presented in chronological order and are preceded by the first chapter of the Festinger book.
How well has the Festinger thesis stood the test of time? In his introduction, Stone writes: "the central thesis of the Festinger book seems lately to have held true: people tend to respond to failed prophecy in ways that reaffirm their faith" (p.4). And this is the problem with Extracting Armageddon. At the core of When Prophecy Fails lies an erroneous interpretation of the case that it examines. The apocalyptic events foretold by a certain Mrs. Keech, and for which her followers and she had prepared, manifestly did not unfold. This unexpected outcome was accounted for by another message of extraterrestrial origin that Mrs. Keech claimed to have received. The group, reports Festinger, had succeeded in saving the world from apocalypse. Festinger, who wanted to explore the reaction of believers after a disconfirmed prophecy, had the wrong material on hand. Mrs. Keech's prophecy did not fail--it was canceled! Forty years of scholarship have not sufficed to expose this fundamental analytical mistake_ Worse, Expecting Armageddon shows that the incapacity to recognize events for what they claim to be has become a deeply ingrained problem in this field of inquiry.
The studies grouped in Expecting Armageddon basically ask two questions:
Why can't members of millennarian groups simply see the obvious and acknowledge that the prophecies in which they believe have been proven falser Why, after disconfirmation, do they react in ways that negate the failure? Based on the empirical evidence provided in the different studies, these questions are inquiries into a non-existing phenomenon. Millennialists do see the obvious. The studies do not report a single instance in which millennialists acted as if the prophecy had indeed been fulfilled in the way it was originally defined or apparently understood. Once the putative moment of occurrence has passed, believers engage in discursive activities revolving mainly around two issues: "What has happened?" and "What is the prophecy about exactly." (Other topics may include "Did we really believe in the prophecy?"). Occasionally, these activities seem to result in the conclusion that the prophecy did fail which, in tom, can provoke the collapse of the millennialist group (see, for instance, the Palmer and Finn chapter). In the vast majority of reported cases, the difference between expectations and occurrences is accounted for in ways that at least partially maintain the plausibility of the prophecy or the prophet's credibility. For instance, the date of the apocalyptic event was miscalculated, or the event was postponed. Or again, the expected day really marked the beginning of the apocalyptic period, or the prophecy was in fact about supernatural events, or the prophecy was not a prophecy after all but a test of the group's faith.
The studies included in Expecting Armageddon fail to recognize that the millennialists cited are not blinded by their adherence to a prophecy. It is quite ironic that a book about "perceptual incompetence" is burdened with the same problem it sees in its object of investigation. According to the experts writing here, the millennialists' discursive activities are the mere expression of their incapacity to grasp reality properly; these true topic is not Why can't scientists see the obvious? but rather Why can't they see the obvious like us, social scientists? Of course, the social scientists are not the bearers of one viewpoint among others, but have the right grasp of reality. Therefore, social scientists can evaluate all perceptual claims for their adequacy. The millennialists are the primitives and the social scientists, the guardian of rationality (van Fossen (p.175-190) addresses this critique to a large portion of the literature about sects but cannot relinquish his position as the ultimate judge about what counts as a prophetic failure or not). Expecting Armageddon depicts an intellectual landscape plaid by a rationalist bias. For a teacher, it could nonetheless be a useful book in a course on the epistemology and methodology of the social scientific study of religion. It provides vivid illustrations of some of the pitfalls one has to circumvent when analyzing religious beliefs.
Edward Berryman
College Sainte-Foy
COPYRIGHT 2003 Association for the Sociology of Religion
COPYRIGHT 2003 Gale Group