How likely are we to find extraterrestrial life?

[otseng]

Many NASA scientists think we're on the verge of finding alien life.

Ellen Stofan, NASA's former chief scientist, said in 2015 that she believes we'll get "strong indications of life beyond Earth in the next decade and definitive evidence in the next 10 to 20 years."

Many astrophysicists and astronomers are convinced that it's not a matter of if we'll find life — it's when.

https://www.businessinsider.com/nasa-pl ... de-2019-11

Questions for debate:
- How likely are we to find extraterrestrial life?
- What empirical evidence is there that any extraterrestrial life exists?
- What are the implications if extraterrestrial life exists or do not exist?

[mgb]

[Replying to Clownboat in post #150]

"Are you not a rabid UFO supporter who would say anything to support your case?"

No I'm not rabid. I try to study this subject as objectively as I can. I don't say anything at all to support my case. I always try to give sincere opinions based on a lot of reading on the subject.
Lie detector tests are suspect. Walton passed the test. I forget the details of the tests but if I remember correctly Walton was too distressed during the first test to do it properly.

[mgb]

The vast majority of UFO incidents have been explained in terms of purely natural phenomena, non-credible witnesses through to outright fakery. The remaining small percentage of unexplained phenomena does not mean that they are automatically due to aliens or spaceships or whatever. They are just unexplained due to lack of sufficient evidence.

Friedman shows that 21.5% of cases in Project Blue Book were unexplained. I would not say there is a lack of evidence. As Friedman points out, many of the more detailed and high quality sightings were unexplainable. It was the evidence and detail that made them unexplainable. Some of the poorer quality sightings were 'explained'.

[DrNoGods]

[Replying to mgb in post #147]

A quick perusal of the case histories will show you that they are normal people; housewives with children, ordinary workers etc. They are not drug addicts.

I didn't suggest they were drug addicts. Perfectly normal people often have parties where maybe a little too much booze was around, or a joint or two made the rounds. There is a whole spectrum of people between teetotallers and drug addicts.

... but the saucers/dirigibles always seem to break down in a convenient place, just as the witness arrives. Something suspicious here. There are many parallels between dirigible and flying saucer accounts. They are the same thing.

I'm not sure I follow this. Are you saying that dirigibles routinely landed on the sides of roads? Or are these accounts from people who thought they encountered a dirigible with people inside and the normal person happening upon the broken down dirigible (whatever that could mean short if it crashing or doing a Hindenburg) just happened to also know how to repair it or provide it with H2 or He? Sounds highly unusual.

If you argue that flying saucers are of this world you must also argue that dirigibles are and they did not have flying saucer technology in the late 19th century.

What? Dirigibles exist and are man made and of this world. The first one was built and flown in 1852:

https://www.space.com/16623-first-powered-airship.html

But what does this have to do with "flying saucers" existing, or not? I don't see the connection. My argument is that what people think are "flying saucers" are not any sort of alien spacecraft but are some sort of man made craft (which could be a dirigible, for example, or something else) that they could not properly identify.

Common sense goes a long way. Why, if they are studying our natural world, would they let humans see them? There are plenty of remote areas where they could do these studies without being seen.

I agree that common sense goes a long way, and it would suggest that alien visitors from outside our solar system are not visiting Earth to study humans for the simple reason that no intelligent life outside of planet Earth has yet been found ... not even microbial life has been found yet ... so the probability that there are alien visitors coming to Earth in flying saucers seems awfully low. Plus, how would you know their intentions? Maybe they are friendly and would want to jump out and have a cold beer and find out all about Earthlings and what interactions with them would be like.

Study the case histories. In one experiment a group of abductees were sent to a psychologist to be assessed. The psychologist did not know they were abductees and reported that they were normal. She was shocked when she found out they were abductees.

They were abductees? How was that determined? She probably was indeed shocked to find out they thought they had been abducted by aliens! I'm surprised she didn't call them back to ask more questions before declaring them "normal", and possibly administer some substance abuse tests.

[William]

//According to Avi Loeb, chair of Harvard University’s Astronomy Department, the search for alien life is not only a worthy cause, but one that guarantees success, statistically speaking. There are at least four billion sunlike stars in the Milky Way alone, and scientists estimate that half of them are surrounded by Earth-like planets that could harbor life. The mathematical odds are against us being alone, and if you want more tangible evidence, a piece of alien intelligence might have already visited us recently, per Loeb’s research.
On October 19, 2017, the Pan-STARRS1 telescope in Hawaii detected something strange in the sky: an object traveling at four times the average speed of an asteroid and moving in a trajectory unbound by the sun’s gravitational force alone. Observation data later revealed that the object came from the direction of Vega, a nearby star 25 light-years away from Earth, and intercepted our solar system’s orbital plane in early September. It made the closest approach to the sun on September 9. And, on October 7, it shot by Earth at a speed of nearly 60,000 miles per hour before moving toward the constellation Pegasus and the blackness beyond.
Astronomers had never seen anything like this before. Based on its unusual speed and trajectory, they concluded that it must be an interstellar object. It became known as ‘Oumuamua (pronounced “oh-mooah-mooah”), meaning “scout” in Hawaiian.
But what on earth was it? That’s where scientists’ opinions diverge. Loeb is unconvinced by most theories, leading him to this question: What if it was not natural at all but an artifact from an alien civilization? In his new book, Extraterrestrials: The First Sign of Intelligent Life Beyond Earth, the professor explains why this is a valid possibility and what the science community could do to find out.
[link]

[mgb]

I'm not sure I follow this. Are you saying that dirigibles routinely landed on the sides of roads? Or are these accounts from people who thought they encountered a dirigible with people inside and the normal person happening upon the broken down dirigible (whatever that could mean short if it crashing or doing a Hindenburg) just happened to also know how to repair it or provide it with H2 or He? Sounds highly unusual.

I'm saying the dirigibles were the equivalent of flying saucers. They were supposed to be broken down, just like the flying saucer routine, but why would they break down on the side of the road? Why not in a field or wood or outa sight? Because they were meant to be seen by the witness. It was a set up. Flying saucers do exactly the same thing. If you study the dirigible encounters you will see many parallels with flying saucers.

[DrNoGods]

[Replying to mgb in post #156]

Flying saucers do exactly the same thing. If you study the dirigible encounters you will see many parallels with flying saucers.

What, exactly, is a "flying saucer"? I've heard this phrase in reference to an unidentified flying object that was shaped like an oblate spheroid with a low aspect ratio, but to my knowledge none of these things have ever been positively identified as being real, and certainly not occupied by some kind of intelligent life. Of all the "UFO" sightings that there have been (and not all UFO's need to be alien visitors ... technically a bug passing through by field of view that I could not identify would be a UFO), you'd think that at least one time, one of these things would have crashed, or landed intentionally for some reason, or hover or fly in a manner that it could be definitively photographed or videoed without ambiguity. But this has never happened. Flying saucers (so far) seem to have the same characteristics as something that does not exist.

[mgb]

What, exactly, is a "flying saucer"? I've heard this phrase in reference to an unidentified flying object that was shaped like an oblate spheroid with a low aspect ratio, but to my knowledge none of these things have ever been positively identified as being real, and certainly not occupied by some kind of intelligent life. Of all the "UFO" sightings that there have been (and not all UFO's need to be alien visitors ... technically a bug passing through by field of view that I could not identify would be a UFO), you'd think that at least one time, one of these things would have crashed, or landed intentionally for some reason, or hover or fly in a manner that it could be definitively photographed or videoed without ambiguity. But this has never happened. Flying saucers (so far) seem to have the same characteristics as something that does not exist.

But they have been photographed many times. Why would they crash? I don't see why the must crash. But how do you know they did not? What if they don't want to be definitively photographed, without ambiguity? It is they that determine when they are seen or not seen and how close we can get to them. When people see these craft it is because they are meant to see them.

[Diagoras]

To answer the first question of the OP, the likelihood increased very recently.

https://www.reuters.com/science/scienti ... 025-04-16/

The implication is that life (on at least a simple level, e.g. bacterial) could be relatively common throughout the universe.

[A Freeman]

There is absolutely no doubt that there are aliens/extra-terrestrials, including Father (God), His Christ, and the rest of the angels of heaven:

King of kings' Bible - John 8:14 (John 8:23 KJV) And he said unto them, Ye are from beneath; I am from above: ye are of this world; I AM NOT FROM THIS WORLD.

John 18:36 Jesus answered, My kingdom is NOT OF THIS WORLD: if my kingdom were of this world, then would my servants fight, that I should not be delivered to the Jews: but now is my kingdom not from hence.

The Bible is literally replete with references to space ships, like the one that the Israelites followed through the wilderness for 40 years, or "Ezekiel's wheels", or the spaceship ("Star") that led the wise men for two years, until they arrived at the exact house where the young child Jesus, and his mother Mary, resided.

Matthew 2:1-11
2:1 Now when Jesus had been born in Bethlehem of Judaea in the days of Herod the king, behold, there came wise men (druids) to the East to Jerusalem,
2:2 Saying, Where is he that has been BORN King of the Jews? for we saw his "Star" in the East, and are come to worship him.
2:3 When Herod the king had heard [these things], he was troubled, and all Jerusalem with him.
2:4 And when he had gathered all the chief priests and lawyers of the people together, he demanded of them where Christ should be born.
2:5 And they said unto him, In Bethlehem of Judaea: for thus it is written by the prophet,
2:6 And thou Bethlehem, [in] the land of Judah, art not the least among the princes of Judah: for out of thee shall come a Governor (of this prison planet), that shall rule My people Israel.
2:7 Then Herod, when he had privily called the wise men, enquired of them diligently [exactly] what time the "Star" had appeared.
2:8 And he sent them to Bethlehem, and said, Go and search diligently for the young child; and when ye have found [him], bring me word again, that I may come and worship him also.
2:9 When they had heard the king, they departed; and, lo, the "Star", which they had seen in the East, went before them, till it came and stood over where the young child was.
2:10 When they saw the "Star", they rejoiced with exceeding great joy.
2:11 And when they were come into the HOUSE, they saw the young CHILD with Mary his mother, and fell down, and worshipped him: and when they had opened their treasures, they presented unto him gifts; gold, and frankincense, and myrrh.

It obviously wasn't an actual star, because no one could tell when a specific star is over an entire country, much less a specific house in a specific city. Nor could anyone follow an actual star for 2 years.

And of course there's also the New Jerusalem, a spaceship roughly the size of our moon, prophesied to come down out of heaven soon.

[Clownboat]

It obviously wasn't an actual star, because no one could tell when a specific star is over an entire country, much less a specific house in a specific city. Nor could anyone follow an actual star for 2 years.

It obviously wasn't an actual snake or donkey that talked, right?
Nor was it actually fish and loaves that were conjured up, right?
Nor did a man live in a fish for 3 days, right?
Nor did the bodies of dead saints get out of their graves and walk Jerusalem, right?
Checking for consistency.

And of course there's also the New Jerusalem, a spaceship roughly the size of our moon, prophesied to come down out of heaven soon.

Where did you get the dimensions for the space ship that is called New Jerusalem? I wonder if a small force of solders could find plans for this New Jerusalem to see if it has any weak points. Perhaps a small exhaust vent that we could shoot a proton torpedo down?