otseng wrote:micatala wrote:On the other hand, I think it is fair to say that otseng is mistaken in saying no predictions based on the SG have been offered. As I recall, I have offered at least some cursory predictions.
I believe the farthest we got was
post 513:
I would agree the SG along WITH the other data we have about the age and history of the earth would imply that some faulting etc. would not affect all layers
However, there was no resolution to the matter of folds and erosion. If a presentation of the full prediction for SG in regards to the appearance of stratas will be given, I will accept that and retract that no prediction have been offered.
Alright, I am going to make another prediction, but this is the last time.
The SG predicts exactly what we find in the geological record.
Now are you happy?
And I am only being half facetious here. The SG has become the dominant model BECAUSE it is consistent with what we see in the record.
THe SG would predict that if you find trilobites below dinosaurs which are below flowering plants which are below sea urchins of a certain type which are below mammoths in one area, then when you find the same kinds of fossils in another area, you will find them in the same sequence. This is what we see.
The SG predicts that when igneous rock layers are in a sequence from low to high and show no evidence of massive movement, the lower ones will date older than the higher ones. This is what we see.
The SG makes predictions concerning where one is most likely to find oil and natural gas. Energy companies use the SG because its predictions work.
otseng wrote:However, when a model or its predictions, either one, run counter to observed data, then the model is discarded.
As well, I believe SG is inconsistent with the model and the data.
But you haven't shown this in the least. You have asked for a particular type of prediction which both grumpy and I believe is inappropriate from a scientific standpoint. When grumpy asks you to provide more parameters for making the prediction, you seem to demur.
Why exactly do you think the SG is inconsistent with the data we have? You keep pointing to this expectation that the SG should include the possibility that there are layers formed, then folds in these layers, then layers on top of these. We agree.
You have NOT shown that this does not exist. And in fact, I provided a link to a graphic of the grand canyon which shows that exactly what you are looking for occurs there.
Now, I do not know how to get pictures into the thread. But if you go to
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geology_of ... anyon_area
which is the very link you cited in your photo, you will see exactly what you asked for. Go down just one scroll click and look next to the contents on the right.
Or, see
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Grand ... olumn.jpeg for a full size version.
We see that layers formed. Then tilted. Then eroded away flat, then many more layers formed on top.
Note how far down the boundary between the pre-tilt layers and the post-tilt layers is. I suggested earlier that this is exactly what you might find according to the SG. I noted that one HAD to take into account the time scales and so you might not find what you were asking for very often, especially close to the surface which is where most of the examples you have posted are from. You never specified how often you expected this to happen, only that you expected such phenomenon to be somehow uniformly distrbuted through the record. I noted how uniform depended on how long the sequence of events to occur and if it tended to take a long time, you may not see this "very often" in the layers.
Now, grumpy has not provided pictures or diagrams that I can recall from his area, but he has claimed he also sees what you are looking for every day as he drives around PA.
We also had another example of a formation near a shore whose name escapes me now.
So, I must emphatically insist that we HAVE shown you what you asked for and it is consistent with the SG and is INCONSISTENT with all the layers being laid down in a flood as you have claimed.
I have also explained why we are not likely to find a huge number of these examples, at least close to the surface.
otseng wrote:1) No salt on ice caps over Greenland and elsewhere. otseng has explained this by saying the ice caps formed after the flood. This does not work, since we can date, in a number of different ways, the layers in the ice caps. The data falsifies a flood within roughly the last 100,000 years.
I'll promise that we'll address the issue of ice layers after we deal with the appearance of the stratas.
I refuse to offer more predictions based on the SG as condition for addressing the more relevant data which falsifies the FM.
Let me make an analogy for what you are doing from my point of view. It is a little bit like saying the prosecuting attorney is not allowed to enter ballistics evidence and eye-witness testimony against a shooting suspect until he answers the defense attorney's question concerning what the suspect ate for breakfast the day of the alleged crime.
You are refusing to consider the most relevant evidence until the less relevant evidence has been gone through ad nauseum.
As I have said before, a model gets discarded when the evidence shows it is false. I have provided MULTIPLE EXAMPLES of evidence to show the FM is simply not feasible. Some of the lines of evidence falsify the FM all by themselves. In conjunction, the case is pretty air tight. Why should we continue to compare the SG agains the FM when we know the FM is false and we have no such evidence against the SG?
I hope you will understand that I refuse to have consideration of this evidence dismissed or further postponed because you are not yet satisfied at the multiple attempts I have made to address your questions, especially when you have not shown your questions are really scientifically relevant.
Can otseng explain how the FM can account for not only the multiple salt layers cited here, but the characteristics of the many intervening layers, all of which can be found in one geographic location?
We'll have to add this to the queue.
Let's make it #2 in the queue after the previous item on ice layers, but before any further consideration of what global predictions the SG should make.
otseng wrote:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:USA_0 ... i_2007.jpg
Even looking at the Grand Canyon, the pattern is the same. Layering prior to deformation and erosion. According to SG, the oldest layers are roughly 2 billion years old. Then 75 mya the area was uplifted, then the Colorado river starts eroding it. But, for a period of 1.925 billion years, prior to the Laramide orogeny, there is very little evidence of orogenies or erosion. Or put another way, what did the area look like 80 mya? Would SG predict this?
I know I alluded to this above, but again, you missed the relevant graphic.
Yes, we see layers forming and then subsquent erosion, but all of this is occuring on top of previously formed and tilted layers. Again, exactly what you asked for and claimed we should see according to the SG.
Let me make another analogy. Suppose we want to attempt to reconstruct the history of all human warfare in the world. We might create a model of why wars occur, based on current examples. We might use that to predict what circumstances would have led to wars in the past. However, it is doubtful such a model could ever, by itself, allow one to predict exactly when and where you would find evidence for wars in the historical or archeological record,
unless you knew what the circumstances were at particular times and places in the past . It is also not likely to help you determine how often wars occurred in the past or how far back the first war occurred.
This is exactly what grumpy has been pointing out for a number of pages.
In addition, all of our scenarios about wars would be hypothetical until we actually have some data to go against. The measure of our model would be how accurately does the model predict war when the parameters we have identified are present. We would always measure the model in the context of a particular time and place based on the data we have from that time and place.
If we wished, we could use the model to predict where war is most likely to break out in the near future. With wars, we might not have to take long.
With the SG, we can also predict where certain occurrences are most likely to happen in the future. We can pretty confidently predict more earthquakes will occur along the San Andreas fault. Indonesia is likely to experience more Tsunamis. Kansas is likely to be geologically quiet. Mountains are likely to form where we can currently identify plates moving together.
The problem of course is that many of the events we predict will not take place, if they do, for thousands or millions of years.
The thread is whether there is evidence for the flood. I call for a halt to further consideration of predictions of the SG until at least the two pieces of evidence presented by the grand canyon and the worlds ice layers can be adequately explained by the FM. Based on previous posts, the FM includes but is not limited to:
1) All the sedimentary layers above the base basalt layer were laid down by the flood.
2) The water for the flood came predominantly from underground chambers.
3) There were no high mountains prior to the flood, and these were created during the flood as a result of the water pressure from the vents pushing continents apart and into each other.
Please add other important aspects of the FM I have not recalled at this time.
" . . . the line separating good and evil passes, not through states, nor between classes, nor between political parties either, but right through every human heart . . . ." Alexander Solzhenitsyn